Tropical system could bring heavy rain to the Charleston area

CHARLESTON, S.C. (WCBD) – A tropical wave moving across Cuba is forecast to develop as it enters the Gulf of Mexico and nears the Florida west coast over the weekend.

For now, the system is producing a large area of poorly organized showers and thunderstorms over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas, and Jamaica, according to the National Hurricane Center.

NHC forecasters say the wave will emerge over the Straits of Florida on Friday night or Saturday where additional development could occur, and a tropical depression is likely to form.

Computer models show the system moving across Florida and out into the Atlantic just off the Georgia and South Carolina coasts by late Monday afternoon.

“Thankfully, most of it – the heaviest rain – will be out over the Gulf Stream and up into eastern North Carolina. Down into the Lowcountry, we’re going to have moderate to heavy rain but not the worst of it,” said Storm Team 2 Meteorologist Josh Marthers.

Significant rainfall could occur late Sunday, Monday, and into Tuesday. “Three to five inches is what we’re looking at as a potential rain total right now,” said Marthers. “That, of course, will be adjusted based off intensity, track, size- all of those things that get worked out in the next couple of days.”

Significant wind issues are not anticipated at this time, but that could change depending on the forecast.

“Forecast confidence remains low to medium since a center of circulation has not formed. Size, strength, and forward motion will determine impacts, so check in for updates. Farther west means more rain and impacts, farther east means less rain and impacts,” Marthers said.

There is still plenty of time to monitor this system as it develops. Right now, it’s not a named storm and much could change with the forecast.

 “I still don’t think this is anything to ruin your weekend. Go about your business but check on the forecast- specifically, if you are in flood-prone areas because you might need to pay attention to this as we head into early next week,” Marthers said.

The National Hurricane Center said tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of Florida sometime on Friday.

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