Poll: Mace holds double-digit lead in Republican race for South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District

CHARLESTON, S.C. (WCBD)- U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace is holding a wide lead in the race for the Republican nomination in South Carolina’s 1^st Congressional District, according to a new poll released Thursday.

The Emerson College/Nexstar poll found that 47% of likely Republican primary voters support Mace for reelection, putting her 25 points ahead of Catherine Templeton who is polling at 22%.

“I think ultimately, what we can take from a poll this early is that it shows a lead and it shows that lead is significantly, statistically,” said Mark Owens, an associate professor of political science at The Citadel.

“Now the candidates are going to turn up the heat a little bit. Someone like Nancy Mace might see strength and look towards the general election, talking back towards what’s happening in DC,” he continued. “You [also] have opportunities here where Catherine Templeton sees an opening, right…that’s why Templeton has to remind people what’s been going on, most recently, if you can use the idea of a business leader to talk about the impacts of that on the broader region.”

Mace’s other challenger, Bill Young, is polling at 7%, which Owens suggests signals strong recognition among voters.

“The fact of introducing himself first, as a veteran, shows that people see that and are responding to it,” he said. “If he has a supporter now, I think they will stay with him. And he’s sort of identifying now that he has a small foundation to grow from.”

However, many voters — about 24% — say they are still undecided with just three weeks to go until the primary.

“It is a large number when you think about how fluid an election can be,” Owens said, noting that less than 10% of likely voters ahead of South Carolina’s GOP presidential primary were undecided.

Owens said all three candidates will look to seize on that bloc in the final month leading up to the primary.

“For right now, 24% just means that they might be thinking about a House election. They’re going to wait until June to start remembering that there is an election going on. So it’s good to have this number in May for actually all the campaigns to calibrate themselves to know if they need to do more and spend money now or save for that [potential] runoff,” Owens continued.

Support for Mace’s reelection is strongest among voters over 70 at 53%, voters without a college degree at 51%, and male voters at 49%, according to the survey.

The race also stands to test the strength of former President Donald Trump’s endorsement in a district in which former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley performed better in the Republican presidential primary. Trump threw his support behind Mace in March, calling her a “strong, conservative voice” for South Carolina.

But the survey suggests that a plurality of voters are indifferent to the former president’s endorsement with 43% saying it does not impact their vote. About one-third of voters said his backing makes them more likely to vote for Mace while only 20% said it made them less likely to support her.

“The endorsement can only carry weight right now if the candidates remind you of it,” Owens said. “One of the things in particular to recognize is that both candidates — Templeton and Mace — have opportunities to say that they’re close to President Trump and I think that their voters, regardless of what the endorsement was, they might think it’s just politics and they stand more behind their candidate in this election.”

Voters were also asked which issues were most important to them when considering their vote and which candidate they believed was best equipped to tackle critical issues.

The economy (46%) emerged as the top issue for likely Republican primary voters with 57% saying they trusted Mace to better handle inflation and the cost of living.

Immigration, which has become a focal point in the race, was the second most important issue to voters with 59% saying they trust Mace on border security to Templeton’s 30% and Young’s 12%.

A majority of voters also said they trust Mace to do the best job on foreign policy at 59%, abortion policy at 56%, and environmental management at 55%.

“The issue questions when looking at the crosstabs is the good news for the Mace campaign on this,” Owens explained. “If you start getting into specifics, people tend to feel more consistent toward supporting her as a candidate.”

Templeton earned her highest marks, 30%, on border security and environmental management, while Young earned his highest, 16%, on abortion policy.

Voters tend to be more issue-focused in the primaries, Owens explained, so proving their strength in certain policy areas will be key for the Templeton and Young campaigns in trying to close the gap.

“It’s the issues that are driving the country [and] drive people to go vote in the primary,” he said. “For right now, it’s questions about who’s going to be a strong member of the Republican caucus and what would that do for these voters if they’re thinking about it only in that party primary.”

Whether they can build enough momentum over the next several weeks to overtake Mace remains to be seen, but Owens said their hopes could hinge on who shows up to the polls.

“There’s a race right now in the primary so the idea is that it really comes down to turnout,” he said. “When we think about voter turnout, it’s important to make sure that we know that this is the most competitive election in the entire state right now. This district…is different than the rest of the state. It’s unpredictable.”

The survey of roughly 400 likely GOP primary voters was conducted from May 19 through May 21, 2024, and has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.